MODEL VERDICT
Onity Group Inc. (ONIT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $47.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $46.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $45.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $44.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $42.68 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $223.12 | +367.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $64.31 | +34.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $220.94 | +362.8% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $85.21 | +78.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $158.25 | +231.5% | 100% | 56 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 6× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $89 | $89 | $89 | $89 | $134 |
| Conservative (7%) | $91 | $91 | $91 | $91 | $137 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $94 | $94 | $94 | $94 | $142 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $97 | $97 | $97 | $97 | $146 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates ONIT's fair value at $158.25 vs the current price of $47.74, implying +231.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 56/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $158.25 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $70.09 (P10) to $242.65 (P90), with a median of $153.70.
ONIT's current P/E of 2.2x compares to the industry median of 10.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -78.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover ONIT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $60.00 (range: $60.00 — $60.00), implying +25.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 56/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 17.8% is 17.4 percentage points above the 7-year average (0.4%), with a Z-score of +1.9σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$1. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ONIT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.9σ, meaning margins are 1.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (0.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9790.0% to approximately $1. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.