MODEL VERDICT
Valneva SE (VALN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.43 | $11.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $10.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $10.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $9.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $9.87 | Pending | -1.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $3.39 | -69.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $26.22 | +136.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $28.49 | +156.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.09 | +18.0% | 100% | 54 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 8.12 | 5.42 | 1.97 | 19.65 | 7.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 6.63 | 4.47 | 1.69 | 15.88 | 6.37 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.08 | 3.35 | 1.81 | 7.78 | 2.79 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 7 valuation metrics, the model estimates VALN's fair value at $13.09 vs the current price of $11.09, implying +18.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.76 (P10) to $18.39 (P90), with a median of $13.00.
VALN's current P/E of -55.3x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -358.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover VALN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $18.33 (range: $14.00 — $26.00), implying +65.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for VALN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.