MODEL VERDICT
OppFi Inc. (OPFI) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $9.18 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $35.35 | +285.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $160.15 | +1644.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $9.48 | +3.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $301.64 | +3185.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $105.51 | +1049.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $273.26 | +2876.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $85.53 | +831.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $95.51 | +940.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $10.51 | +14.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $303.78 | +3209.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $97.92 | +966.7% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $10 | $11 |
| Conservative (5%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $11 |
| Base Case (-32.3%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
| Bull Case (-44%) | $4 | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.28 | 15.37 | 1.71 | 40.67 | 16.96 |
| EV/EBIT | 2.97 | 2.25 | 1.42 | 7.01 | 2.32 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.05 | 6.79 | 3.14 | 71.85 | 29.62 |
| P/FCF | 0.95 | 0.73 | 0.29 | 2.51 | 0.89 |
| P/FFO | 7.38 | 8.35 | 1.57 | 10.70 | 3.50 |
| P/TBV | 1.19 | 1.09 | 0.43 | 2.43 | 0.78 |
| P/AFFO | 22.69 | 23.25 | 1.80 | 39.88 | 14.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.19 | 1.09 | 0.43 | 2.43 | 0.78 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 0.13 | 0.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.48 | 0.38 | 0.16 | 1.09 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates OPFI's fair value at $97.92 vs the current price of $9.18, implying +966.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $97.92 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $75.99 (P10) to $142.37 (P90), with a median of $105.38.
OPFI's current P/E of 25.5x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -3.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.3x over 4 years. Signal: Fair Value.
4 analysts cover OPFI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $7.25 (range: $3.00 — $13.00), implying -21.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: OPFI trades at the 4650th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (18.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OPFI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (11.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 115620.0% to approximately $115. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.