MODEL VERDICT
Oatly Group AB (OTLY) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $11.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $11.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $12.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $11.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $11.55 | Pending | -3.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $55.21 | +363.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 14 industry peers | $62.14 | +421.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $53.31 | +347.6% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.98 | 3.41 | 1.55 | 3.98 | 1.27 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.43 | 3.51 | 1.30 | 16.51 | 6.28 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.99 | 0.89 | 0.38 | 6.80 | 2.72 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates OTLY's fair value at $53.31 vs the current price of $11.91, implying +347.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $53.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $28.10 (P10) to $92.19 (P90), with a median of $58.78.
OTLY's current P/E of -2.4x compares to the industry median of 26.2x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -109.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
18 analysts cover OTLY with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $15.38 (range: $14.00 — $18.00), implying +29.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (9), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for OTLY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.