MODEL VERDICT
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $15.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $14.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $14.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $14.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $11.34 | Pending | +27.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 16 analyst estimates | $29.32 | +90.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 16 industry peers | $28.64 | +86.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $16.80 | +9.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 15 industry peers | $49.28 | +220.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 16 industry peers | $33.32 | +116.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 16 industry peers | $45.98 | +198.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $12.28 | -20.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $15.33 | -0.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 16 industry peers | $17.10 | +11.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 16 industry peers | $51.23 | +232.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $26.81 | +74.1% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $12 | $14 | $16 | $18 | $20 |
| Conservative (5%) | $12 | $14 | $17 | $19 | $21 |
| Base Case (-2.6%) | $11 | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 |
| Bull Case (-4%) | $11 | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.47 | 10.54 | 1.65 | 65.06 | 22.29 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.68 | 8.90 | 1.88 | 24.53 | 7.66 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.41 | 3.49 | 1.60 | 4.95 | 1.17 |
| P/FCF | 10.80 | 3.20 | 1.51 | 57.14 | 20.47 |
| P/FFO | 3.37 | 3.82 | 1.22 | 5.73 | 1.47 |
| P/TBV | 1.29 | 1.31 | 0.91 | 1.78 | 0.32 |
| P/AFFO | 19.05 | 10.53 | 1.50 | 89.28 | 31.33 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.13 | 1.20 | 0.87 | 1.31 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.01 | 0.62 | 0.22 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.94 | 0.89 | 0.49 | 1.34 | 0.29 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates PBR-A's fair value at $26.81 vs the current price of $15.40, implying +74.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $26.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $23.30 (P10) to $36.17 (P90), with a median of $28.67.
PBR-A's current P/E of 14.7x compares to the industry median of 16.0x (15 peers in the group). This represents a -8.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.5x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
23 analysts cover PBR-A with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (10), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PBR-A's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (27.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8210.0% to approximately $28. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.