Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$169.74
→
Intrinsic$79.90
-53%
$43.95$79.90$151.45
Market implies 23% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $170, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (23%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $44 → Bull $151. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $104 | $117 | $130 | $144 |
| 10% | $63 | $71 | $80 | $89 |
| 12% | $41 | $47 | $54 | $61 |
| 14% | $27 | $32 | $37 | $43 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($151) with 10% growth, 8% discount rate
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($44) implies 74% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 23% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 53% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$8.29B
Year 2$8.95B
Year 3$9.66B
Year 4$10.44B
Year 5$11.27B
Terminal$178.63B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$7.67BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.