MODEL VERDICT
CPI Card Group Inc. (PMTS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 50 industry peers | $19.24 | +53.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $19.99 | +59.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 50 analyst estimates | $20.90 | +66.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.09 | +59.8% | 100% | 71 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $7 | $10 | $14 | $17 | $20 |
| Conservative (7%) | $7 | $10 | $14 | $17 | $21 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $7 | $11 | $14 | $18 | $22 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $7 | $11 | $15 | $19 | $22 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.21 | 11.60 | 3.05 | 18.23 | 5.58 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.47 | 8.94 | 7.96 | 72.46 | 23.87 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.87 | 7.24 | 6.03 | 13.53 | 2.57 |
| P/FCF | 14.99 | 10.43 | 3.30 | 31.47 | 11.36 |
| P/FFO | 5.53 | 6.38 | 0.83 | 9.88 | 3.66 |
| P/AFFO | 7.72 | 8.62 | 1.27 | 13.31 | 5.27 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.43 | 0.51 | 0.04 | 0.89 | 0.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates PMTS's fair value at $20.09 vs the current price of $12.57, implying +59.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.69 (P10) to $27.67 (P90), with a median of $20.11.
PMTS's current P/E of 7.7x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (50 peers in the group). This represents a -34.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.2x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover PMTS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $28.33 (range: $25.00 — $30.00), implying +125.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (3), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PMTS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.