MODEL VERDICT
Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC (PSNY) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.08 | $23.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.08 | $17.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.08 | $18.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.08 | $18.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $20.99 | Below threshold | -9.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $1.25 | -94.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $4.54 | -80.5% | 100% | 38 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/S Ratio | 6.53 | 3.30 | 1.09 | 18.42 | 8.07 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 3 valuation metrics, the model estimates PSNY's fair value at $4.54 vs the current price of $23.28, implying -80.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 38/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $4.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $0.33 (P10) to $4.41 (P90), with a median of $1.97.
PSNY's current P/E of -24.0x compares to the industry median of 17.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -241.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover PSNY with a consensus rating of Sell. The consensus price target is $15.00 (range: $15.00 — $15.00), implying -35.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (2), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 38/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PSNY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.