MODEL VERDICT
Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $11.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $11.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $9.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $9.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $10.05 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $22.17 | +84.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $24.22 | +102.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $23.71 | +97.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $20.29 | +69.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $17.67 | +47.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $22.87 | +90.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $20.81 | +73.5% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 8.10 | 5.91 | 3.50 | 15.39 | 5.25 |
| P/FCF | 10.46 | 7.01 | 6.11 | 28.57 | 8.90 |
| P/FFO | 6.65 | 4.74 | 2.77 | 16.09 | 5.09 |
| P/TBV | 1.25 | 1.22 | 0.50 | 2.23 | 0.55 |
| P/AFFO | 20.64 | 9.24 | 8.36 | 58.20 | 21.39 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.97 | 0.75 | 0.49 | 2.22 | 0.58 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.88 | 0.86 | 0.49 | 1.40 | 0.32 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates PTEN's fair value at $20.81 vs the current price of $11.99, implying +73.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $20.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.64 (P10) to $23.64 (P90), with a median of $19.51.
PTEN's current P/E of -50.0x compares to the industry median of 24.4x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -305.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
53 analysts cover PTEN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $11.00 (range: $10.00 — $14.00), implying -8.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (26), Hold (19), Sell (7), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PTEN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.