MODEL VERDICT
Qfin Holdings, Inc. (QFIN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $13.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $13.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $14.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $14.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $13.58 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $799.19 | +5868.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $301.32 | +2150.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $503.43 | +3659.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 2 industry peers | $131.28 | +880.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $935.23 | +6884.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $304.84 | +2176.6% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $369.09 | +2656.4% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 6× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $181 | $181 | $181 | $181 | $272 |
| Conservative (13%) | $190 | $190 | $190 | $190 | $285 |
| Base Case (20.3%) | $202 | $202 | $202 | $202 | $302 |
| Bull Case (27%) | $214 | $214 | $214 | $214 | $320 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.55 | 0.92 | 0.14 |
| P/FCF | 1.25 | 0.56 | 0.34 | 5.69 | 1.96 |
| P/FFO | 0.77 | 0.63 | 0.51 | 1.31 | 0.28 |
| P/TBV | 0.22 | 0.20 | 0.12 | 0.35 | 0.07 |
| P/AFFO | 0.77 | 0.63 | 0.51 | 1.32 | 0.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.22 | 0.20 | 0.12 | 0.35 | 0.07 |
| Div Yield | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.22 | 0.36 | 0.07 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.24 | 0.20 | 0.13 | 0.42 | 0.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates QFIN's fair value at $369.09 vs the current price of $13.39, implying +2656.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $369.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $254.91 (P10) to $536.30 (P90), with a median of $359.50.
QFIN's current P/E of 2.2x compares to the industry median of 19.1x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -88.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.7x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
4 analysts cover QFIN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $28.15 (range: $27.90 — $28.40), implying +110.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: QFIN trades at the 260th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that QFIN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (18.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 760.0% to approximately $14. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.