Qfin Holdings, Inc. (QFIN)
Valuation Overview•Is Qfin Holdings, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 80/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Wall Street forecasts a balanced outlook with consensus price targets near the current price.
Verdict: High-quality compounder, with solvency as the only relative weakness.
Wall Street sentiment is generally neutral. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven by a balanced mix of reliable dividends and share buybacks.
QFIN exhibits elite business quality, driven by exceptional capital efficiency and highly lucrative margins. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($873M) and minimal debt risk.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with highly explosive earnings growth (49.9% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 39.1% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.0B | +8.8% | — | — | — | |
| EBITDA | $1.1B | — | +16.4% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $998.7M | -7.4% | +13.0% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $15.38 | +104.2% | +49.9% | +31.8% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $0.00 | +18.0% | +22.5% | +15.3% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 74.4% | 69.1% | 71.0% | 0.7% |
| Operating Margin | 39.1% | 35.8% | 35.1% | -140.6% |
| Net Margin | 33.9% | 31.3% | 30.6% | -97.9% |
| FCF Margin | 45.0% | 51.6% | 45.0% | -398.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.96 | $1.04 | +8.3% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.13 | $1.12 | -0.9% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.68 | $1.52 | -9.5% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.79 | $1.78 | -0.6% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.72 | $1.74 | +1.2% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.68 | $1.82 | +8.3% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.39 | $1.74 | +25.2% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.99 | $1.22 | +23.2% |
Total return is -59.3% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -84.3%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -12.0% | -21.3% | — |
| 1Y | -59.3% | -84.3% | +5.4% |
| 3YCAGR | +8.3% | -11.5% | +29.9% |
| 5YCAGR | -13.3% | -26.3% | +13.8% |
| 10YCAGR | +2.5% | -11.2% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Qfin Holdings, Inc. (QFIN) valuation, health, and returns.
Qfin Holdings, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +495.5% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $90.58)
Qfin Holdings, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $90.58 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $62.33 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $15.33 (implying +0.8% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Qfin Holdings, Inc. displays excellent financial health with a composite quality score of 80/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 17.7%.
Qfin Holdings, Inc. pays a 19.7% dividend yield, covered by a 24% payout ratio with 5 years of growth, supplemented by a 36.2% buyback yield.
Qfin Holdings, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +8.8% 1Y revenue growth and +104.2% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 4 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 58% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +0.8% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Qfin Holdings, Inc. include: -74.6% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.17x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.