MODEL VERDICT
Redwire Corporation (RDW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.08 | $9.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.08 | $9.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.08 | $10.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.08 | $9.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.09 | $9.29 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $1.29 | -86.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $1.23 | -86.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1.86 | -80.0% | 100% | 36 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/B Ratio | 4.46 | 3.72 | 1.82 | 8.57 | 2.89 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.06 | 3.08 | 0.76 | 27.09 | 11.27 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates RDW's fair value at $1.86 vs the current price of $9.34, implying -80.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 36/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1.86 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $0.94 (P10) to $2.20 (P90), with a median of $1.40.
RDW's current P/E of -4.1x compares to the industry median of 46.7x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -108.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover RDW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $14.20 (range: $9.00 — $20.00), implying +52.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (0), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 36/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (22), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RDW.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.