Redwire Corp (RDW)
Valuation Overview•Is Redwire Corp Overvalued or Undervalued?
Market price has outpaced base-case intrinsic cash flows, pricing in significant future growth optimism.
Fragile underlying quality score of 30/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
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Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
RDW struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (27.8% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-50.3%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $117.1M | +10.3% | +27.8% | +42.3% | — | |
| EBITDA | -$10.6M | — | -13.4% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$41.0M | -98.2% | -20.1% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-0.19 | +3.0% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$44.9M | -703.5% | -74.7% | -69.5% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 20.1% | 14.5% | 16.6% | 17.8% |
| Operating Margin | -50.3% | -29.6% | -46.2% | -37.6% |
| Net Margin | -57.3% | -38.8% | -48.5% | -41.1% |
| FCF Margin | -27.0% | -22.5% | -23.8% | -16.3% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26Latest | $-0.16 | $-0.19 | -21.6% | ||
| Q2'26 | $-0.16 | $-0.40 | -150.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.16 | $-0.58 | -262.5% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.12 | $-0.29 | -141.7% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.11 | $-1.41 | -1181.8% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.20 | $-0.09 | +54.5% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.18 | $-1.38 | -666.7% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.15 | $-0.37 | -146.7% |
Total return is +22.2% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +6.5%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +24.8% | +12.4% | — |
| 1Y | +22.2% | +6.5% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +60.0% | +37.6% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +0.7% | -10.8% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +0.8% | -12.3% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Redwire Corp (RDW) valuation, health, and returns.
Redwire Corp is estimated to be overvalued under our discounted cash flow framework. overvalued (implying -62.6% downside from DCF intrinsic value of $4.02)
Redwire Corp has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $4.02 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $14.88 (implying +32.0% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Redwire Corp displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 30/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 3.2 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -27.8%.
Redwire Corp returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 2.4% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by +80.7% in the last 12 months.
Redwire Corp's current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +10.3% 1Y revenue growth and +3.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +27.8%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 10 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 8% of recent quarters with a -5-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +32.0% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Redwire Corp include: -70.0% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (3.86x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 3.86x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.