MODEL VERDICT
The Western Union Company (WU) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $9.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $9.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $9.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $10.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $9.69 | Pending | +3.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 41 industry peers | $17.91 | +86.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 44 industry peers | $4.45 | -53.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Dividend Yield 32 industry peers | $30.15 | +213.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 39 industry peers | $18.90 | +96.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 41 analyst estimates | $15.06 | +56.4% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.53 | +92.4% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 6× (Current) | 8× | 10× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $6 | $6 | $9 | $12 | $16 |
| Conservative (5%) | $6 | $6 | $10 | $13 | $16 |
| Base Case (-3.1%) | $6 | $6 | $9 | $12 | $15 |
| Bull Case (-4%) | $6 | $6 | $9 | $12 | $15 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.88 | 7.10 | 3.87 | 12.26 | 2.99 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.25 | 7.14 | 2.36 | 10.57 | 2.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.64 | 6.40 | 1.91 | 11.07 | 2.81 |
| P/FCF | 10.71 | 9.80 | 6.98 | 14.66 | 3.15 |
| P/FFO | 6.22 | 5.47 | 3.25 | 9.39 | 2.29 |
| P/AFFO | 6.82 | 5.93 | 3.36 | 11.20 | 2.65 |
| P/B Ratio | 16.12 | 10.22 | 3.18 | 48.82 | 17.21 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.33 | 1.20 | 0.75 | 2.18 | 0.53 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates WU's fair value at $18.53 vs the current price of $9.63, implying +92.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $12.96 (P10) to $30.46 (P90), with a median of $20.54.
WU's current P/E of 6.3x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (41 peers in the group). This represents a -46.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 7.9x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
48 analysts cover WU with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $9.00 (range: $9.00 — $9.00), implying -6.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (29), Sell (13), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WU's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (17.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7420.0% to approximately $17. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.