MODEL VERDICT
Root, Inc. (ROOT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $55.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $57.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $54.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $51.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $44.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $31.88 | -42.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $55.26 | +0.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $26.77 | -51.4% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $31.89 | -42.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $55.87 | +1.5% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $147.48 | +167.9% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $32.20 | -41.5% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $50.10 | -9.0% | 100% | 73 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $48 | $53 | $58 | $63 | $68 |
| Conservative (7%) | $49 | $54 | $59 | $64 | $69 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $51 | $56 | $61 | $66 | $71 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $53 | $58 | $63 | $68 | $74 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.95 | 2.66 | 0.24 | 6.75 | 2.47 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.80 | 2.62 | 0.23 | 6.02 | 2.28 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.66 | 0.93 | 0.20 | 11.32 | 4.30 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates ROOT's fair value at $50.10 vs the current price of $55.05, implying -9.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $50.10 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.68 (P10) to $57.13 (P90), with a median of $45.64.
ROOT's current P/E of 23.7x compares to the industry median of 13.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +72.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
14 analysts cover ROOT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $75.00 (range: $75.00 — $75.00), implying +36.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (9), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ROOT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.