MODEL VERDICT
Lemonade, Inc. (LMND)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $56.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $65.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $70.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $65.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $54.45 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $14.58 | -74.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 10 bank peers | $17.89 | -68.4% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $9.44 | -83.3% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $30.24 | -46.6% | 100% | 60 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 5.51 | 3.69 | 1.10 | 12.53 | 4.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.29 | 3.50 | 1.02 | 12.53 | 4.71 |
| P/S Ratio | 18.30 | 5.94 | 2.61 | 71.79 | 26.97 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates LMND's fair value at $30.24 vs the current price of $56.66, implying -46.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 60/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $30.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.75 (P10) to $58.93 (P90), with a median of $35.47.
LMND's current P/E of -24.6x compares to the industry median of 11.0x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -323.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
15 analysts cover LMND with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $72.67 (range: $44.00 — $92.00), implying +28.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (3), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 60/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LMND.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.