Rapid7, Inc. (RPD) — Estimates & Forecasts
Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $-125M | $-149M | $26M | $2.6B | $4.2B | $8.7B | $11.1B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-2.13 | $-2.46 | $0.40 | $39.46 | $61.45 | $122.76 | $149.82 |
| YoY Growth | — | — | — | +10058.9% | +61.9% | +107.7% | +26.9% |
| Net Margin | -18.2% | -19.2% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.1% |
| Metric | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $844M | $132.2B | $175.9B | $315.7B | $355.1B |
| Net Income | $26M | $2.6B | $4.2B | $8.7B | $11.1B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.40 | $39.46 | $61.45 | $122.76 | $149.82 |
| Free Cash Flow | $168M | $2.7B | $4.4B | $9.1B | $11.6B |
Forecast is usable, but expect normal estimate drift around earnings and macro events.
Rapid7, Inc.'s projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $39.46. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 64/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Rapid7, Inc.: Bear case $-21390, Base case $956, and Bull case $4926. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Rapid7, Inc.'s projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is -39.4%, reaching approximately $132.2B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 64/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Currently expanding margins support higher forecast reliability. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Rapid7, Inc.'s forward operating margin is estimated at -1.1% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "expanding". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($-21390) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is above Wall Street consensus with a 2437.9% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 47% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.