MODEL VERDICT
Rapid7, Inc. (RPD) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $6.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $6.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $7.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $10.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $14.09 | Pending | -23.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $24.55 | +294.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $605.85 | +9640.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $9.19 | +47.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $39.94 | +542.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $32.10 | +416.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $11230.32 | +180451.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $9995.93 | +160606.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $10.35 | +66.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $41.44 | +566.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1187.10 | +18985.2% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $5 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
| Conservative (7%) | $5 | $6 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $5 | $6 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $5 | $6 | $7 | $8 | $9 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 57.27 | 34.57 | 15.11 | 144.85 | 59.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 64.31 | 48.57 | 16.58 | 143.52 | 56.40 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.86 | 5.93 | 2.90 | 12.15 | 3.79 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates RPD's fair value at $1187.10 vs the current price of $6.22, implying +18985.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1187.10 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $723.91 (P10) to $1557.44 (P90), with a median of $1134.47.
RPD's current P/E of 15.6x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -32.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
37 analysts cover RPD with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $10.25 (range: $6.50 — $16.00), implying +64.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (18), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RPD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.