MODEL VERDICT
EchoStar Corporation (SATS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $123.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $117.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $133.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $131.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $128.59 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $130.02 | +5.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $222.53 | +80.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $146.46 | +18.9% | 100% | 58 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 30.02 | 30.83 | 1.01 | 78.28 | 30.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.46 | 7.52 | 0.75 | 21.63 | 8.25 |
| P/FCF | 16.29 | 19.33 | 2.43 | 24.08 | 10.21 |
| P/FFO | 3.35 | 3.47 | 0.38 | 7.98 | 3.10 |
| P/TBV | 2.22 | 1.31 | 0.84 | 5.43 | 2.16 |
| P/AFFO | 35.94 | 23.62 | 0.73 | 97.57 | 40.93 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.19 | 0.58 | 0.06 | 5.38 | 1.88 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.89 | 0.40 | 0.07 | 2.22 | 0.93 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates SATS's fair value at $146.46 vs the current price of $123.18, implying +18.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $146.46 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $71.49 (P10) to $236.83 (P90), with a median of $147.62.
SATS's current P/E of -2.4x compares to the industry median of 13.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -118.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover SATS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $131.00 (range: $110.00 — $158.00), implying +6.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SATS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.