MODEL VERDICT
SBC Medical Group Holdings Incorporated (SBC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $3.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $3.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $4.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $4.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $4.15 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 1 analyst estimates | $4.53 | +36.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 1 industry peers | $8.14 | +145.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $9.28 | +180.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 1 industry peers | $3.06 | -7.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 1 industry peers | $11.39 | +244.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 1 industry peers | $4.12 | +24.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 2 industry peers | $5.72 | +72.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 2 industry peers | $4.42 | +33.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 1 industry peers | $7.24 | +118.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 1 industry peers | $2.67 | -19.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.14 | +236.6% | 100% | 57 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $2 | $3 | $4 | $5 | $6 |
| Conservative (7%) | $2 | $3 | $4 | $5 | $6 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $2 | $3 | $4 | $5 | $6 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $2 | $3 | $4 | $5 | $6 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 105.07 | 25.77 | 11.52 | 277.93 | 149.87 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.81 | 5.77 | 4.98 | 12.69 | 4.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.17 | 5.72 | 4.53 | 11.27 | 3.60 |
| P/FFO | 14.28 | 12.55 | 10.65 | 19.65 | 4.75 |
| P/TBV | 4.28 | 2.84 | 1.59 | 8.42 | 3.64 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.74 | 2.75 | 1.43 | 7.05 | 2.94 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.91 | 2.61 | 0.88 | 5.24 | 2.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates SBC's fair value at $11.14 vs the current price of $3.31, implying +236.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 57/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.14 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.49 (P10) to $18.61 (P90), with a median of $10.32.
SBC's current P/E of 6.9x compares to the industry median of 19.2x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -64.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 105.1x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover SBC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $9.00 (range: $9.00 — $9.00), implying +171.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 57/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (14), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SBC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (29.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 173930.0% to approximately $61. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.