MODEL VERDICT
Sigma Lithium Corporation (SGML)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $21.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $19.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $19.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $18.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $14.85 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 2 analyst estimates | $16.44 | -25.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 1 industry peers | $2.77 | -87.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 1 industry peers | $3.81 | -82.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.29 | -39.5% | 100% | 46 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 10.20 | 9.40 | 6.22 | 15.89 | 4.06 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.17 | 9.40 | 6.16 | 15.89 | 4.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 7 valuation metrics, the model estimates SGML's fair value at $13.29 vs the current price of $21.97, implying -39.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 46/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.29 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.72 (P10) to $14.36 (P90), with a median of $12.99.
SGML's current P/E of -47.4x compares to the industry median of 14.4x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -429.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover SGML with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $18.00 (range: $18.00 — $18.00), implying -18.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 46/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SGML.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.