MODEL VERDICT
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. (SQM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $92.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $88.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $88.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $87.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $82.12 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $86.13 | -7.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $25.72 | -72.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $27.32 | -70.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $70.42 | -24.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $36.21 | -60.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $44.27 | -52.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $58.58 | -36.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $25.24 | -72.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $63.46 | -31.5% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.82 | 23.84 | 5.84 | 79.18 | 26.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.00 | 16.15 | 4.14 | 44.97 | 13.38 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.73 | 16.40 | 4.17 | 47.62 | 14.23 |
| P/FCF | 46.96 | 40.26 | 7.18 | 84.08 | 30.24 |
| P/FFO | 27.59 | 23.78 | 5.83 | 78.20 | 26.20 |
| P/TBV | 4.23 | 4.61 | 2.01 | 6.81 | 1.54 |
| P/AFFO | 48.81 | 35.55 | 7.59 | 116.55 | 48.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.05 | 4.48 | 1.99 | 6.06 | 1.34 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.87 | 3.67 | 2.13 | 7.21 | 1.87 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates SQM's fair value at $63.46 vs the current price of $92.68, implying -31.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $63.46 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $47.83 (P10) to $77.96 (P90), with a median of $61.58.
SQM's current P/E of -65.3x compares to the industry median of 18.8x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -447.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.8x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover SQM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $75.50 (range: $53.00 — $91.00), implying -18.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (8), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SQM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.