MODEL VERDICT
Sotera Health Company (SHC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $15.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $15.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $16.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $16.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $15.36 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $18.40 | +18.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $28.07 | +81.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $12.10 | -21.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $8.56 | -44.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $23.11 | +49.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $2.68 | -82.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $4.73 | -69.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $9.91 | -36.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $11.53 | -25.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $8.53 | -45.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.05 | +22.9% | 100% | 82 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 47× | 52× | 57× (Current) | 62× | 67× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $13 | $15 | $16 | $17 | $19 |
| Conservative (7%) | $14 | $15 | $16 | $18 | $19 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 | $20 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $14 | $16 | $17 | $19 | $21 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 75.47 | 75.42 | 57.44 | 93.61 | 16.91 |
| EV/EBIT | 31.86 | 27.33 | 21.43 | 54.30 | 13.35 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.24 | 18.01 | 10.08 | 27.40 | 6.52 |
| P/FCF | 59.45 | 36.68 | 24.41 | 115.87 | 39.72 |
| P/FFO | 35.04 | 23.69 | 18.73 | 74.06 | 26.13 |
| P/AFFO | 108.46 | 134.56 | 39.73 | 151.10 | 60.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 10.62 | 10.19 | 6.66 | 17.10 | 3.58 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.22 | 4.45 | 2.32 | 9.50 | 2.61 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates SHC's fair value at $19.05 vs the current price of $15.50, implying +22.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.94 (P10) to $22.09 (P90), with a median of $18.95.
SHC's current P/E of 57.4x compares to the industry median of 44.8x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +28.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 75.5x over 4 years. Signal: Premium.
12 analysts cover SHC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $22.00 (range: $18.00 — $24.00), implying +41.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SHC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.