Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$120.73
→
Intrinsic$59.93
-50%
$40.42$59.93$98.67
Current price reflects execution expectations above 25% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $40 → Bull $99. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $99).
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $76 | $82 | $88 | $95 |
| 10% | $52 | $56 | $60 | $64 |
| 12% | $39 | $42 | $45 | $48 |
| 14% | $31 | $33 | $36 | $38 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($99) with 30% growth, 8% discount rate
Bear Case
- Bear case ($40) implies 67% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Trading 50% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Price exceeds bull case ($99) — requires exceptional execution
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$2.51B
Year 2$3.14B
Year 3$3.92B
Year 4$4.90B
Year 5$6.12B
Terminal$97.06B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$2.01BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.