Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated Feb 28, 2026
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
As of March 1, 2026, Shopify Inc. (SHOP) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $165.16, based on estimates from 63 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $120.73, this represents a potential upside of +36.8%. The company has a market capitalization of $157.42B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $115.00 to a high of $200.00, representing a 51% spread in expectations. The median target of $165.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The wide target spread reflects significant disagreement on fair value.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 40 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,20 rating it Hold, and 3 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, SHOP trades at a trailing P/E of 128.4x and forward P/E of 65.9x. The forward PEG ratio of 2.25 reflects a premium valuation. Analysts expect EPS to grow +94.2% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $120.73, with bear and bull scenarios of $-464.60 and $560.44 respectively. Model confidence stands at 74/100, indicating high predictability in the company's fundamentals.
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Start ComparisonThe consensus Wall Street price target for SHOP is $165.16, representing 36.8% upside from the current price of $120.73. With 63 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
SHOP has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 63 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 40 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $165.16 implies 36.8% upside from current levels.
At a forward P/E of 65.9043x, SHOP trades at a premium valuation. The consensus price target of $165.16 (36.8% upside) suggests analysts still see growth justifying the multiple.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $200 for SHOP, while the most conservative target is $115. The consensus of $165.16 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $560 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
SHOP is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 63 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 40 have Buy ratings, 20 recommend Hold, and 3 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month SHOP stock forecast based on 63 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $165.16, with estimates ranging from $115 (bear case) to $200 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $121, with bear/bull scenarios of $-465/$560.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates SHOP's fair value at $121 (base case), with a bear case of $-465 and bull case of $560. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 74/100.
SHOP trades at a forward P/E ratio of 65.9x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 128.4x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on SHOP, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $165.16 price target (36.8% upside). 40 of 63 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SHOP analyst price targets range from $115 to $200, a 51% wide spread indicating significant analyst disagreement. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $165.16 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $-465-$560 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.