Upside case
Bull case
$499+363.4%
SHOP would need investors to value it at roughly 272x earnings — about 213x more generous than today's 59x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
63
analysts
40 bullish · 3 bearish · 63 covering SHOP
Strong Buy
0
Buy
40
Hold
20
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$165
+53.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $499
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
63
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
58.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $139.7B
SHOP price targets
Three scenarios for where SHOP stock could go
Current
~$108
Confidence
75 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $108
Base
$108
Bull
$499
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$108-0.0%
This is close to how the market is already pricing SHOP — at roughly 59x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Shopify Inc.
SHOP · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - ApplicationDecember year-end
Shopify is a comprehensive commerce platform that enables businesses of all sizes to create online stores, manage sales across multiple channels, and handle operations like payments, shipping, and inventory. It generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its platform tiers — which account for about 30% of revenue — and merchant solutions like payment processing, shipping, and capital advances that make up the remaining 70%. The company's key advantage is its integrated ecosystem that combines easy-to-use store creation tools with a vast app marketplace and fulfillment network, creating high switching costs for merchants as they grow their businesses.
Market Cap
$139.7B
Revenue TTM
$9.2B
Net Income TTM
$1.3B
Net Margin
14.5%
SHOP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+24.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.35/$0.29
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.34/$0.34
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.46/$0.51
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.33/$0.33
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.35/$0.29 | +20.2% | $2.7B/$2.6B | +3.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.34/$0.34 | +1.0% | $2.8B/$2.8B | +3.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.46/$0.51 | -9.1% | $3.6B/$3.6B | +1.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.33/$0.33 | +2.1% | $3.1B/$3.0B | +2.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$14.6B
+26.3% YoY
FY2
$18.1B
+24.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.58
+67.3% YoY
FY2
$1.84
+16.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.1B
FCF Margin: 23.1%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SHOP beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
SHOP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $11.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Service
76.2%
+34.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Service is the largest disclosed segment at 76.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 34.8% YoY.
SHOP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $209 — implies +63.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
63.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SHOP
114.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+356% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
SHOP
114.5x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+328% premium
vs SHOP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
114.5x
vs
5Y Average
100.2x
+14% premium
Forward PE
58.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
+207%
Technology
22.1x
+165%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
114.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
+356%
Technology
26.7x
+328%
5Y Avg
100.2x
+14%
PEG Ratio
3.91x
S&P 500
1.72x
+128%
Technology
1.52x
+156%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
92.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+507%
Technology
17.5x
+428%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
69.6x
S&P 500
21.1x
+230%
Technology
19.5x
+257%
5Y Avg
100.9x
-31%
Price/Sales
12.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+287%
Technology
2.4x
+395%
5Y Avg
18.8x
-36%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Technology
1.16%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | SHOP | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg SHOP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 58.7x | 19.1x+207% | 22.1x+165% | — |
| Trailing PE | 114.5x | 25.1x+356% | 26.7x+328% | 100.2x+14% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.91x | 1.72x+128% | 1.52x+156% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 92.3x | 15.2x+507% | 17.5x+428% | — |
| Price/FCF | 69.6x | 21.1x+230% | 19.5x+257% | 100.9x-31% |
| Price/Sales | 12.1x | 3.1x+287% | 2.4x+395% | 18.8x-36% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.16% | — |
SHOP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSHOP Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
SHOP generates $2.1B in free cash flow at a 23.1% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$9.2B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-2.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
64.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
17.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
14.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.02
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
23.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.5B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
10.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.3B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSHOP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Corporate Finance & Shareholder Risk
Shopify’s profitability depends on the use of loss carryforwards and tax credits, which can be limited by regulatory changes. Volatility in share price, driven by equity‑method investments and market sentiment, can trigger shareholder litigation. The company’s high P/E ratio relative to industry averages adds further valuation pressure.
High Risk
Valuation & Growth Assumptions
Shopify trades at a P/E ratio well above the e‑commerce industry average, embedding aggressive growth expectations. If revenue growth slows or margins compress, the stock could become a “value trap,” eroding upside potential. Investors should monitor earnings guidance and market sentiment for signs of a valuation correction.
Medium
AI & Product Innovation
Shopify’s leadership in AI and agentic commerce is speculative; failure to deliver superior ROI over competitors like Google and Meta could reduce revenue. Intense competition in the AI space and rapid technological change increase the risk of product obsolescence. The company must continue to invest in R&D to maintain its competitive edge.
Medium
Competitive Landscape & Tariffs
Shopify faces fierce competition from Amazon, Adobe, and Salesforce, which can erode market share and pricing power. Its heavy exposure to the U.S. market makes it vulnerable to tariff changes that could squeeze merchant margins. Market sentiment shifts can also impact Shopify’s growth prospects.
Medium
Merchant Success & Margin Volatility
Shopify’s revenue is tied to merchant performance; increased competition or negative sentiment can reduce merchant sales. Operational efficiency and margin stability are threatened by investments in international expansion and product enhancements. Rapid sales spikes, preorders, subscriptions, and delayed fulfillment can elevate merchant risk profiles and affect Shopify’s earnings.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SHOP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Market Leadership and Wide Moat
Shopify is the leading e‑commerce platform, serving millions of merchants worldwide and offering omnichannel selling tools. Its economic moat is built on high switching costs, strong brand recognition, and economies of scale that keep merchants locked into its ecosystem.
Predictable Subscription Revenue
The company’s subscription-based model delivers stable monthly recurring revenue (MRR). Transaction fees, tied directly to merchant sales, add a variable component that grows as merchants succeed, and merchant‑solutions revenue has shown strong year‑over‑year growth.
Rapid International GMV Expansion
Shopify is actively rolling out payments and financing services in new countries, driving significant growth in global merchant volume (GMV). The expansion into international markets is a key catalyst for future top‑line growth.
Growing Payments & Financial Services
The platform’s financial services, such as Shop Pay, generate substantial revenue and have posted strong year‑over‑year increases. Expanding these services offers a large opportunity to capture higher margins and deepen merchant relationships.
AI‑Powered Commerce Tools
Shopify’s AI commerce suite—including Catalog, Sidekick, and the Universal Commerce Protocol—aims to boost merchant attach rates. By automating product discovery and customer interactions, these tools are expected to accelerate growth and improve conversion rates.
B2B GMV Surge
Business‑to‑business GMV has experienced significant growth, underscoring a new revenue stream. This expansion into B2B commerce provides a high‑margin avenue for long‑term scaling.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SHOP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$107.61
52W Range Position
21%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$88.14
+22.1% from the low
52-Week High
$182.19
-40.9% from the high
1 Month
-9.41%
3 Month
-3.26%
YTD
-31.5%
1 Year
+9.4%
3Y CAGR
+20.2%
5Y CAGR
-0.8%
10Y CAGR
+43.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SHOP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
58.7x
vs 12.8x median
+357% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+26.3%
vs +13.9% median
+89% above peer median
Net Margin
14.5%
vs 8.3% median
+74% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SHO SHOP Shopify Inc. | $139.7B | 58.7x | +26.3% | 14.5% | Buy | +53.1% |
WIX WIX Wix.com Ltd. | $4.2B | 12.8x | +13.9% | 2.5% | Buy | +76.5% |
GDD GDDY GoDaddy Inc. | $11.7B | 12.6x | +6.6% | 17.3% | Buy | +29.5% |
CAR CART Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) | $11.6B | 18.2x | +14.8% | 14.1% | Buy | +13.6% |
PYP PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. | $42.8B | 8.8x | +3.2% | — | Hold | +11.2% |
BIL BILL Bill.com Holdings, Inc. | $3.8B | 16.0x | +18.1% | -1.6% | Buy | +41.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsSHOP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Shopify Inc. (SHOP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 63 analysts covering the stock, 40 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $165, implying +53.1% from the current price of $108.
02What is the SHOP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SHOP is $165 based on 63 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $200 (+85.8% from today), and the low-end target is $115 (+6.9%). The base case model target is $108.
03Is Shopify Inc. (SHOP) stock overvalued in 2026?
SHOP trades at 58.7x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Shopify Inc. (SHOP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SHOP in 2026 are: (1) Corporate Finance & Shareholder Risk — Shopify’s profitability depends on the use of loss carryforwards and tax credits, which can be limited by regulatory changes. (2) Valuation & Growth Assumptions — Shopify trades at a P/E ratio well above the e‑commerce industry average, embedding aggressive growth expectations. (3) AI & Product Innovation — Shopify’s leadership in AI and agentic commerce is speculative; failure to deliver superior ROI over competitors like Google and Meta could reduce revenue. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Shopify Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SHOP will report consensus revenue of $14.6B (+26.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.58 (+67.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $18.1B in revenue.
06When does Shopify Inc. (SHOP) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SHOP is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Shopify Inc. generate?
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) generated $2.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 23.1%. SHOP returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).