Upside case
Bull case
$106-3.1%
The bull case prices SHOP at 59x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
63
analysts
40 bullish · 3 bearish · 63 covering SHOP
Strong Buy
0
Buy
40
Hold
20
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$157
+44.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$50 – $106
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
63
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
60.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $141.2B
SHOP price targets
Three scenarios for where SHOP stock could go
Current
~$109
Confidence
71 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $109
Bear
$50
Base
$80
Bull
$106
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$80-26.4%
At 44x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$50-53.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 32x multiple contraction could push SHOP down roughly 54% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Shopify Inc.
SHOP · NASDAQTechnologySoftware - ApplicationDecember year-end
Shopify is a comprehensive commerce platform that enables businesses of all sizes to create online stores, manage sales across multiple channels, and handle operations like payments, shipping, and inventory. It generates revenue primarily through subscription fees for its platform tiers — which account for about 30% of revenue — and merchant solutions like payment processing, shipping, and capital advances that make up the remaining 70%. The company's key advantage is its integrated ecosystem that combines easy-to-use store creation tools with a vast app marketplace and fulfillment network, creating high switching costs for merchants as they grow their businesses.
Market Cap
$141.2B
Revenue TTM
$12.4B
Net Income TTM
$1.3B
Net Margin
10.8%
SHOP Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+24.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.35/$0.29
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.6B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.34/$0.34
Revenue
$2.8B/$2.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.46/$0.51
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.36/$0.33
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.35/$0.29 | +20.2% | $2.7B/$2.6B | +3.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.34/$0.34 | +1.0% | $2.8B/$2.8B | +3.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.46/$0.51 | -9.1% | $3.6B/$3.6B | +1.0% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.36/$0.33 | +10.4% | $3.1B/$3.1B | +1.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$14.5B
+17.6% YoY
FY2
$17.3B
+19.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.55
+51.9% YoY
FY2
$1.78
+14.7% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.1B
FCF Margin: 17.2%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.39
Expected Revenue
$3.4B
SHOP beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
SHOP Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $11.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Service
76.2%
+34.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Service is the largest disclosed segment at 76.2% of FY 2025 revenue, up 34.8% YoY.
SHOP Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $21 — implies -81.1% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
81.1%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SHOP
115.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+374% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
SHOP
115.8x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+299% premium
vs SHOP 5Y Avg P/E
Today
115.8x
vs
5Y Average
100.2x
+16% premium
Forward PE
60.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+221%
Technology
22.3x
+171%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
115.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
+374%
Technology
29.0x
+299%
5Y Avg
100.2x
+16%
PEG Ratio
3.95x
S&P 500
1.66x
+138%
Technology
1.51x
+162%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
93.3x
S&P 500
15.2x
+514%
Technology
16.6x
+461%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
70.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
+240%
Technology
19.2x
+266%
5Y Avg
100.9x
-30%
Price/Sales
12.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+295%
Technology
2.4x
+401%
5Y Avg
18.8x
-35%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | SHOP | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg SHOP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 60.4x | 18.8x+221% | 22.3x+171% | — |
| Trailing PE | 115.8x | 24.4x+374% | 29.0x+299% | 100.2x+16% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.95x | 1.66x+138% | 1.51x+162% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 93.3x | 15.2x+514% | 16.6x+461% | — |
| Price/FCF | 70.4x | 20.7x+240% | 19.2x+266% | 100.9x-30% |
| Price/Sales | 12.2x | 3.1x+295% | 2.4x+401% | 18.8x-35% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
SHOP trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSHOP Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
SHOP generates $2.1B in free cash flow at a 17.2% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$12.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+31.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
48.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.3%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.02
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
17.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
9.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.5B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
10.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.3B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSHOP Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Valuation de-rating
Shopify's forward P/S ratio of 8.9x leaves little room for disappointment, indicating potential downside if growth falters.
High Risk
Historical drawdown risk
Shopify's stock plummeted over 80% from its peak during the 2021-2022 market correction, highlighting extreme volatility and downside risk.
Medium
Stock performance decline
Shopify's stock has declined 25% YTD in 2026 despite strong Q4 2025 results, signaling investor skepticism.
Medium
AI commerce uncertainty
While Shopify is leveraging AI for growth, its ability to drive meaningful stock upside remains unproven, with only 20% upside projected.
Lower
Competitive moat durability
Shopify's moat relies on network effects and integrations, but sustained competition could erode its advantages over time.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SHOP Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
AI-driven business growth
Shopify offers AI tools to help businesses build and grow quickly, enhancing efficiency and scalability.
Comprehensive ecommerce platform
Shopify provides a full suite of tools for online and in-person sales, including POS systems and inventory management.
Strong product-led growth
Shopify's focus on product innovation and user experience continues to drive long-term growth, despite near-term valuation risks.
Dropshipping and automation
Shopify's app enables seamless dropshipping inventory management and order automation, optimizing operations for efficiency and profit.
Free education and credentials
Shopify offers free educational resources and credentials to help users build skills and stand out in the ecommerce space.
Founder-led innovation
Shopify's origins as a founder-led company solving real ecommerce pain points underscore its innovative and customer-centric approach.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SHOP Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$108.85
52W Range Position
17%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$94.00
+15.8% from the low
52-Week High
$182.19
-40.3% from the high
1 Month
+6.31%
3 Month
-12.09%
YTD
-30.8%
1 Year
+2.7%
3Y CAGR
+19.2%
5Y CAGR
-5.8%
10Y CAGR
+43.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SHOP vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
60.4x
vs 10.8x median
+458% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+17.6%
vs +10.1% median
+75% above peer median
Net Margin
10.8%
vs 12.6% median
-14% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SHO SHOP Shopify Inc. | $141.2B | 60.4x | +17.6% | 10.8% | Buy | +44.0% |
WIX WIX Wix.com Ltd. | $2.3B | 8.6x | +14.4% | -2.0% | Buy | +97.5% |
GDD GDDY GoDaddy Inc. | $10.3B | 10.8x | +7.8% | 17.3% | Buy | +44.9% |
CAR CART Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) | $10.5B | 18.2x | +10.1% | 12.6% | Buy | +18.0% |
PYP PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. | $37.5B | 8.0x | +4.5% | 15.0% | Hold | +18.7% |
BIL BILL Bill.com Holdings, Inc. | $3.2B | 12.3x | +10.7% | 0.0% | Buy | +58.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsSHOP Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Shopify Inc. (SHOP) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 63 analysts covering the stock, 40 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 20 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $157, implying +44.0% from the current price of $109. The bear case scenario is $50 and the bull case is $106.
02What is the SHOP stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SHOP is $157 based on 63 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $200 (+83.7% from today), and the low-end target is $115 (+5.6%). The base case model target is $80.
03Is Shopify Inc. (SHOP) stock overvalued in 2026?
SHOP trades at 60.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Shopify Inc. (SHOP) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SHOP in 2026 are: (1) Valuation de-rating — Shopify's forward P/S ratio of 8. (2) Historical drawdown risk — Shopify's stock plummeted over 80% from its peak during the 2021-2022 market correction, highlighting extreme volatility and downside risk. (3) Stock performance decline — Shopify's stock has declined 25% YTD in 2026 despite strong Q4 2025 results, signaling investor skepticism. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Shopify Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SHOP will report consensus revenue of $14.5B (+17.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.55 (+51.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $17.3B in revenue.
06When does Shopify Inc. (SHOP) report its next earnings?
Shopify Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $0.39 and revenue of $3.4B. Over recent quarters, SHOP has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Shopify Inc. generate?
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) generated $2.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 17.2%. SHOP returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).