MODEL VERDICT
SkyWater Technology, Inc. (SKYT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $29.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $28.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $29.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $30.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $29.58 | Below threshold | +2.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $110.07 | +273.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $74.11 | +151.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $71.01 | +141.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $115.25 | +291.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $100.22 | +240.2% | 100% | 50 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $20 | $25 | $30 | $36 | $41 |
| Conservative (7%) | $21 | $26 | $31 | $36 | $42 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $21 | $27 | $32 | $38 | $43 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $22 | $28 | $33 | $39 | $44 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 8.39 | 7.96 | 4.74 | 11.74 | 3.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.64 | 7.21 | 4.52 | 10.78 | 2.83 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.15 | 1.91 | 1.36 | 3.97 | 1.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates SKYT's fair value at $100.22 vs the current price of $29.46, implying +240.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 50/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $100.22 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $60.02 (P10) to $136.25 (P90), with a median of $97.67.
SKYT's current P/E of 12.1x compares to the industry median of 45.1x (47 peers in the group). This represents a -73.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover SKYT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $35.00 (range: $35.00 — $35.00), implying +18.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 50/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SKYT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.