Sleep Number Corp (SNBR)
Valuation Overview•Is Sleep Number Corp Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
Fragile underlying quality score of 17/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
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Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This outlook is strongly supported by highly attractive capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
SNBR struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company is facing top-line contraction (-12.6% 3Y CAGR) paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (-4.5%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $319.0M | -16.1% | -12.6% | -5.3% | +1.5% | |
| EBITDA | -$2.7M | — | -23.9% | — | — | |
| Net Income | -$50.3M | -549.0% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $-2.19 | -541.1% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$13.2M | -586.3% | +19.0% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 58.1% | 58.8% | 58.7% | 60.2% |
| Operating Margin | -4.5% | 1.0% | 3.0% | 5.0% |
| Net Margin | -13.0% | -3.8% | -0.5% | 2.3% |
| FCF Margin | -2.0% | -1.5% | 0.9% | 4.6% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $-0.39 | $-2.19 | -458.6% | ||
| Q1'26 | $-0.56 | $-1.95 | -248.2% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.15 | $0.07 | -53.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.12 | $-1.09 | -808.3% | ||
| Q2'25 | $-0.11 | $-0.38 | -245.5% | ||
| Q1'25 | $-0.22 | $-0.18 | +18.2% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.17 | $-0.14 | +17.6% | ||
| Q3'24 | $-0.37 | $-0.22 | +40.5% |
Total return is -99.7% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -115.4%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -99.7% | -112.1% | — |
| 1Y | -99.7% | -115.4% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -89.8% | -110.8% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -80.8% | -92.4% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -49.7% | -63.3% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Sleep Number Corp (SNBR) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Sleep Number Corp appears Limited: Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers.
Sleep Number Corp has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $0.09 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $10.00 (implying +7774.0% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Sleep Number Corp displays poor financial health with a composite quality score of 17/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of -1.2 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 0.7%.
Sleep Number Corp returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 41.4% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by +1.3% in the last 12 months.
Sleep Number Corp's current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -16.1% 1Y revenue growth and -541.1% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of -12.6%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 11 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 50% of recent quarters with a -5-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +7774.0% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Sleep Number Corp include: -99.8% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.41x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.