MODEL VERDICT
Sleep Number Corporation (SNBR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 20 industry peers | $2.13 | -80.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 22 industry peers | $11.79 | +6.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 22 industry peers | $33.40 | +200.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 20 industry peers | $2.12 | -80.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $10.79 | -3.0% | 100% | 65 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.03 | 16.53 | 12.44 | 18.24 | 2.15 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.20 | 18.57 | 13.95 | 56.78 | 19.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.73 | 11.82 | 8.71 | 14.33 | 1.89 |
| P/FCF | 27.48 | 11.50 | 8.20 | 94.67 | 37.61 |
| P/FFO | 8.38 | 8.73 | 5.71 | 11.59 | 2.21 |
| P/AFFO | 846.71 | 15.30 | 12.98 | 5836.28 | 2200.19 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.63 | 0.75 | 0.18 | 1.25 | 0.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates SNBR's fair value at $10.79 vs the current price of $11.12, implying -3.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $10.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.76 (P10) to $6.23 (P90), with a median of $4.37.
SNBR's current P/E of -12.4x compares to the industry median of 15.8x (16 peers in the group). This represents a -178.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.0x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
11 analysts cover SNBR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $10.00 (range: $7.00 — $12.00), implying -10.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (7), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SNBR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.