MODEL VERDICT
Synopsys, Inc. (SNPS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $414.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $439.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $437.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $437.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $525.18 | Below threshold | -16.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $228.02 | -44.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $103.82 | -74.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $183.75 | -55.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $122.28 | -70.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $25.30 | -93.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $63.60 | -84.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $140.91 | -66.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $88.12 | -78.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $137.54 | -66.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $187.10 | -54.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $127.35 | -69.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $203.92 | -50.7% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 43× | 47× | 51× (Current) | 55× | 59× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $364 | $398 | $432 | $466 | $500 |
| Conservative (9%) | $376 | $411 | $446 | $481 | $516 |
| Base Case (13.5%) | $392 | $429 | $465 | $502 | $538 |
| Bull Case (18%) | $409 | $447 | $485 | $523 | $561 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 55.05 | 58.42 | 33.45 | 76.61 | 14.77 |
| EV/EBIT | 52.76 | 47.48 | 37.46 | 70.73 | 11.77 |
| EV/EBITDA | 46.42 | 47.94 | 28.91 | 60.97 | 11.21 |
| P/FCF | 46.46 | 48.48 | 31.23 | 58.95 | 10.54 |
| P/FFO | 42.67 | 41.19 | 29.24 | 60.32 | 11.76 |
| P/TBV | 31.23 | 32.42 | 14.07 | 40.15 | 9.16 |
| P/AFFO | 49.32 | 46.53 | 31.08 | 66.99 | 12.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.20 | 8.39 | 2.68 | 12.92 | 3.41 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.44 | 10.95 | 6.39 | 15.03 | 2.76 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 27 valuation metrics, the model estimates SNPS's fair value at $203.92 vs the current price of $414.00, implying -50.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $203.92 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $185.59 (P10) to $260.74 (P90), with a median of $222.53.
SNPS's current P/E of 51.5x compares to the industry median of 22.9x (45 peers in the group). This represents a +125.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 55.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
27 analysts cover SNPS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $529.44 (range: $425.00 — $600.00), implying +27.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (22), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SNPS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (21.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6840.0% to approximately $697. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.