Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$414.00
→
Intrinsic$137.25
-67%
$68.77$137.25$273.50
Current price reflects execution expectations above 14% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $69 → Bull $274. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $274).
| Discount ↓Growth → | 10% | 12% | 14% | 16% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $187 | $210 | $234 | $260 |
| 10% | $106 | $121 | $137 | $154 |
| 12% | $63 | $74 | $86 | $99 |
| 14% | $37 | $46 | $55 | $65 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($274) with 17% growth, 8% discount rate
- Conservative 14% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($69) implies 83% downside at 11% growth, 12% discount
- Trading 67% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Price exceeds bull case ($274) — requires exceptional execution
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.54B
Year 2$1.75B
Year 3$1.99B
Year 4$2.27B
Year 5$2.58B
Terminal$40.93B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate13.9%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.35BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.