Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$203.85
→
Intrinsic$626.78
+207%
$389.61$626.78$1,097.98
Market implies 3% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests SPG could have 207% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $204, the market prices in only 3% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $390 → Bull $1098. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $819 | $893 | $971 | $1054 |
| 10% | $526 | $575 | $627 | $682 |
| 12% | $372 | $408 | $446 | $486 |
| 14% | $277 | $305 | $334 | $365 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($1098) offers 439% upside at 30% growth, 8% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (3%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($390) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year FFO Projection
Year 1$7.62B
Year 2$9.53B
Year 3$11.91B
Year 4$14.89B
Year 5$18.61B
Terminal$294.87B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$6.10BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.