MODEL VERDICT
Seritage Growth Properties (SRG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield 24 industry peers | $2.16 | -31.0% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 27 industry peers | $12.07 | +285.6% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 27 industry peers | $0.87 | -72.2% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 27 industry peers | $2.48 | -20.8% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.39 | +72.1% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 93.37 | 60.02 | 10.32 | 209.78 | 103.83 |
| P/FFO | 20.32 | 24.22 | 4.43 | 32.30 | 14.34 |
| P/TBV | 0.90 | 0.82 | 0.57 | 1.50 | 0.32 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.57 | 1.40 | 0.29 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.65 | 5.50 | 4.82 | 25.27 | 7.52 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 10 valuation metrics, the model estimates SRG's fair value at $5.39 vs the current price of $3.13, implying +72.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.17 (P10) to $6.36 (P90), with a median of $5.26.
SRG's current P/E of -1.1x compares to the industry median of 33.5x (22 peers in the group). This represents a -103.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover SRG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SRG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.