MODEL VERDICT
STAG Industrial, Inc. (STAG) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $39.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $39.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $38.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $39.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $37.89 | Below threshold | +3.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 18 industry peers | $46.47 | +18.5% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 20 industry peers | $46.32 | +18.1% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 23 industry peers | $36.07 | -8.0% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 15 industry peers | $40.59 | +3.5% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $34.06 | -13.2% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 20 industry peers | $52.26 | +33.2% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 20 industry peers | $35.06 | -10.6% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $44.23 | +12.8% | 100% | 93 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 23× | 25× | 27× (Current) | 29× | 31× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $34 | $37 | $40 | $43 | $46 |
| Conservative (5%) | $35 | $38 | $41 | $44 | $48 |
| Base Case (2.0%) | $34 | $37 | $40 | $43 | $46 |
| Bull Case (3%) | $34 | $37 | $40 | $43 | $46 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 32.02 | 32.41 | 23.73 | 41.70 | 6.80 |
| EV/EBIT | 35.20 | 32.59 | 23.74 | 53.37 | 10.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.40 | 18.68 | 16.33 | 24.78 | 3.05 |
| P/FCF | 40.21 | 19.02 | 14.85 | 143.05 | 46.51 |
| P/FFO | 14.05 | 12.79 | 11.09 | 18.17 | 2.60 |
| P/TBV | 2.19 | 2.10 | 1.96 | 2.78 | 0.29 |
| P/AFFO | 31.30 | 14.27 | 11.20 | 116.79 | 41.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.86 | 1.75 | 1.67 | 2.32 | 0.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.78 | 9.67 | 8.04 | 14.00 | 2.02 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates STAG's fair value at $44.23 vs the current price of $39.22, implying +12.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $44.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.21 (P10) to $50.62 (P90), with a median of $44.48.
STAG's current P/E of 26.9x compares to the industry median of 27.8x (15 peers in the group). This represents a -3.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 32.0x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
21 analysts cover STAG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $45.00 (range: $39.00 — $59.00), implying +14.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (9), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that STAG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (26.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 770.0% to approximately $42. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.