MODEL VERDICT
Stagwell Inc. (STGW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $6.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $6.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $7.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $6.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $6.27 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $7.85 | +23.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $6.51 | +2.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $1.55 | -75.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $9.20 | +44.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $1.23 | -80.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $6.37 | +0.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $9.29 | +46.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $10.16 | +59.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $1.58 | -75.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $9.17 | +44.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.81 | +132.9% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 48× | 53× | 58× (Current) | 63× | 68× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $5 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
| Conservative (5%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
| Base Case (-31.5%) | $4 | $4 | $4 | $5 | $5 |
| Bull Case (-43%) | $3 | $3 | $4 | $4 | $4 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 1077.08 | 36.34 | 3.44 | 6027.27 | 2428.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 17.28 | 17.53 | 4.47 | 31.37 | 8.65 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.22 | 7.03 | 2.99 | 16.23 | 4.47 |
| P/FCF | 6.70 | 4.40 | 1.57 | 20.99 | 6.69 |
| P/FFO | 3.68 | 3.55 | 2.00 | 4.98 | 1.01 |
| P/AFFO | 4.48 | 4.57 | 2.28 | 5.81 | 1.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.95 | 0.91 | 0.49 | 1.61 | 0.37 |
| Div Yield | 0.37 | 0.30 | 0.21 | 0.59 | 0.20 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.34 | 0.31 | 0.22 | 0.53 | 0.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates STGW's fair value at $14.81 vs the current price of $6.36, implying +132.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.44 (P10) to $38.03 (P90), with a median of $13.91.
STGW's current P/E of 57.8x compares to the industry median of 14.1x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +310.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 1077.1x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
8 analysts cover STGW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $8.00 (range: $8.00 — $8.00), implying +25.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that STGW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (1.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 328880.0% to approximately $216. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.