MODEL VERDICT
Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $152.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $156.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $162.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $163.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $166.15 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $201.48 | +31.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $136.30 | -10.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $134.03 | -12.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $233.95 | +53.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $93.15 | -39.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $55.84 | -63.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $129.72 | -15.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $239.85 | +57.0% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.62 | 23.54 | 10.80 | 24.53 | 7.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 53.45 | 48.17 | 11.10 | 110.49 | 41.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.87 | 16.90 | 9.12 | 18.85 | 3.21 |
| P/FCF | 24.06 | 26.28 | 12.92 | 27.28 | 5.16 |
| P/FFO | 76.68 | 68.48 | 9.55 | 147.30 | 62.09 |
| P/TBV | 22.48 | 22.34 | 14.40 | 30.85 | 6.84 |
| P/AFFO | 30.80 | 34.22 | 12.38 | 45.81 | 16.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.75 | 3.52 | 2.89 | 5.33 | 0.78 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.53 | 4.92 | 2.45 | 5.69 | 1.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates STZ's fair value at $239.85 vs the current price of $152.82, implying +57.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $239.85 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $166.76 (P10) to $263.79 (P90), with a median of $211.61.
STZ's current P/E of -339.6x compares to the industry median of 21.5x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -1682.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.6x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
46 analysts cover STZ with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $175.70 (range: $154.00 — $197.00), implying +15.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (24), Hold (20), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for STZ.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.