MODEL VERDICT
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $214.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $236.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $245.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $244.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $257.21 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $124.32 | -42.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 2 industry peers | $30.90 | -85.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $234.36 | +9.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $264.57 | +23.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 2 industry peers | $195.62 | -8.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $366.37 | +71.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $354.48 | +65.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $235.36 | +9.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 1 industry peers | $232.62 | +8.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $239.37 | +11.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $342.15 | +59.7% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $182 | $202 | $222 | $242 | $262 |
| Conservative (5%) | $187 | $208 | $228 | $249 | $270 |
| Base Case (-8.6%) | $163 | $181 | $199 | $217 | $235 |
| Bull Case (-12%) | $157 | $175 | $192 | $210 | $227 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 104.59 | 59.28 | 19.73 | 431.71 | 145.06 |
| EV/EBIT | 41.23 | 31.27 | 12.27 | 110.47 | 32.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.33 | 22.49 | 8.00 | 78.86 | 23.25 |
| P/FCF | 41.49 | 29.13 | 9.59 | 107.69 | 35.80 |
| P/FFO | 33.35 | 27.05 | 10.40 | 72.49 | 20.40 |
| P/TBV | 7.15 | 4.68 | 2.88 | 16.49 | 4.63 |
| P/AFFO | 56.28 | 53.60 | 14.33 | 103.83 | 30.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.61 | 3.93 | 2.44 | 12.76 | 3.44 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.93 | 2.11 | 0.99 | 7.03 | 2.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates SAM's fair value at $342.15 vs the current price of $214.30, implying +59.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $342.15 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $203.25 (P10) to $452.30 (P90), with a median of $309.45.
SAM's current P/E of 21.7x compares to the industry median of 23.7x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -8.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 104.6x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
31 analysts cover SAM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $246.86 (range: $220.00 — $315.00), implying +15.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (23), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SAM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.