MODEL VERDICT
Savers Value Village, Inc. (SVV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.41 | $8.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $8.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $8.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $8.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $8.08 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $15.06 | +81.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $10.97 | +31.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $5.16 | -38.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $4.19 | -49.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $12.66 | +52.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $13.45 | +61.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $16.83 | +102.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $5.04 | -39.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $3.97 | -52.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $9.54 | +14.7% | 100% | 65 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 41× | 45× | 49× (Current) | 53× | 57× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 | $10 |
| Conservative (5%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 | $10 |
| Base Case (-35.3%) | $5 | $5 | $5 | $6 | $6 |
| Bull Case (-48%) | $4 | $4 | $4 | $5 | $5 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates SVV's fair value at $9.54 vs the current price of $8.32, implying +14.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $9.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.70 (P10) to $10.90 (P90), with a median of $9.29.
SVV's current P/E of 48.9x compares to the industry median of 30.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +61.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
6 analysts cover SVV with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $19.00 (range: $19.00 — $19.00), implying +128.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SVV.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.