MODEL VERDICT
Sysco Corporation (SYY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $74.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $76.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $76.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $74.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $72.82 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $89.49 | +20.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $118.24 | +59.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $111.94 | +51.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $64.99 | -12.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $96.30 | +30.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $71.92 | -2.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $444.51 | +500.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $163.87 | +121.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $155.02 | +109.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $109.80 | +48.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $65.09 | -12.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $126.95 | +71.4% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (22%) | $73 | $82 | $91 | $100 | $109 |
| Conservative (36%) | $81 | $91 | $101 | $111 | $121 |
| Base Case (54.8%) | $92 | $104 | $115 | $127 | $139 |
| Bull Case (74%) | $104 | $117 | $130 | $143 | $156 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 52.86 | 26.73 | 19.66 | 176.81 | 58.32 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.59 | 21.01 | 15.99 | 67.26 | 18.52 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.89 | 15.44 | 11.86 | 28.37 | 6.12 |
| P/FCF | 26.67 | 26.05 | 17.83 | 42.50 | 9.13 |
| P/FFO | 19.78 | 17.54 | 12.39 | 33.79 | 8.44 |
| P/AFFO | 34.86 | 24.45 | 17.98 | 93.28 | 27.35 |
| P/B Ratio | 22.98 | 20.34 | 17.64 | 32.00 | 5.49 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.44 | 0.79 | 0.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SYY's fair value at $126.95 vs the current price of $74.05, implying +71.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $126.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $90.02 (P10) to $133.11 (P90), with a median of $109.47.
SYY's current P/E of 19.9x compares to the industry median of 30.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -33.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 52.9x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
30 analysts cover SYY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $90.44 (range: $83.00 — $100.00), implying +22.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (9), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SYY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (1.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 14240.0% to approximately $179. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.