MODEL VERDICT
The Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. (CHEF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $78.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $65.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $65.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $64.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $64.52 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $35.38 | -55.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $51.82 | -34.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $48.05 | -39.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $35.70 | -54.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $33.35 | -57.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $31.50 | -60.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $36.47 | -53.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $45.51 | -42.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $47.37 | -39.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $36.48 | -53.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $61.60 | -21.9% | 100% | 89 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 39× | 43× | 47× (Current) | 51× | 55× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $68 | $75 | $82 | $89 | $96 |
| Conservative (7%) | $70 | $77 | $84 | $91 | $98 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $72 | $79 | $87 | $94 | $102 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $74 | $82 | $90 | $97 | $105 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 40.11 | 37.36 | 33.44 | 47.05 | 5.90 |
| EV/EBIT | 46.48 | 25.50 | 21.99 | 152.71 | 52.13 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.61 | 16.43 | 14.18 | 34.99 | 7.78 |
| P/FCF | 87.45 | 32.69 | 21.90 | 318.89 | 129.57 |
| P/FFO | 22.26 | 19.05 | 14.89 | 38.91 | 8.54 |
| P/TBV | 58.86 | 49.87 | 27.53 | 108.17 | 34.55 |
| P/AFFO | 38.37 | 33.60 | 26.32 | 58.94 | 12.64 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.51 | 3.41 | 2.51 | 4.75 | 0.76 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.62 | 0.69 | 0.39 | 0.78 | 0.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CHEF's fair value at $61.60 vs the current price of $78.83, implying -21.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $61.60 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $43.92 (P10) to $85.44 (P90), with a median of $60.94.
CHEF's current P/E of 46.9x compares to the industry median of 28.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +64.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 40.1x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
15 analysts cover CHEF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $83.33 (range: $83.00 — $84.00), implying +5.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (11), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CHEF trades at the 8750th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (40.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CHEF.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.