MODEL VERDICT
Talos Energy Inc. (TALO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $15.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $14.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $13.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $14.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $14.53 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $24.46 | +57.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $58.64 | +276.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $66.16 | +325.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $15.61 | +0.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $13.44 | -13.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $58.36 | +275.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $29.05 | +86.7% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.75 | 9.18 | 4.14 | 27.92 | 12.53 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.37 | 14.37 | 4.31 | 24.41 | 9.08 |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.91 | 2.58 | 1.77 | 4.57 | 1.12 |
| P/FCF | 3.62 | 3.39 | 1.77 | 6.79 | 2.01 |
| P/FFO | 2.57 | 2.40 | 1.60 | 3.74 | 0.92 |
| P/TBV | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.60 | 1.52 | 0.35 |
| P/AFFO | 2.15 | 1.86 | 1.60 | 2.98 | 0.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.98 | 0.89 | 0.60 | 1.52 | 0.35 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.07 | 0.97 | 0.64 | 1.81 | 0.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates TALO's fair value at $29.05 vs the current price of $15.56, implying +86.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $29.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $26.92 (P10) to $38.44 (P90), with a median of $32.37.
TALO's current P/E of -5.5x compares to the industry median of 16.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -134.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.7x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover TALO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $13.75 (range: $13.50 — $14.00), implying -11.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TALO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.