MODEL VERDICT
Tactile Systems Technology, Inc. (TCMD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $22.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $25.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $25.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $25.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $23.43 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $16.14 | -29.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $23.35 | +2.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $21.54 | -5.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $31.32 | +36.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $27.17 | +18.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $38.44 | +67.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $45.76 | +99.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $42.20 | +84.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $21.74 | -5.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $31.46 | +37.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $112.77 | +392.6% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 24× | 26× | 28× (Current) | 30× | 32× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $20 | $22 | $24 | $26 | $27 |
| Conservative (7%) | $21 | $23 | $24 | $26 | $28 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $22 | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 48.00 | 29.92 | 11.63 | 120.55 | 49.33 |
| EV/EBIT | 44.21 | 18.44 | 14.24 | 125.72 | 54.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 87.85 | 55.48 | 12.57 | 222.85 | 90.47 |
| P/FCF | 532.62 | 43.38 | 9.93 | 1728.53 | 792.44 |
| P/FFO | 108.89 | 26.26 | 9.47 | 399.93 | 165.90 |
| P/TBV | 6.31 | 5.76 | 2.86 | 12.36 | 3.41 |
| P/AFFO | 1553.06 | 28.93 | 10.14 | 7560.57 | 3358.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.33 | 2.93 | 1.71 | 11.78 | 3.75 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.72 | 1.80 | 0.93 | 7.00 | 2.25 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates TCMD's fair value at $112.77 vs the current price of $22.89, implying +392.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $112.77 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.91 (P10) to $230.83 (P90), with a median of $103.06.
TCMD's current P/E of 27.9x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +6.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 48.0x over 4 years. Signal: Fair Value.
11 analysts cover TCMD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $38.75 (range: $35.00 — $42.00), implying +69.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (2), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TCMD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (2.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3840.0% to approximately $14. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.