MODEL VERDICT
Atlassian Corporation (TEAM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $88.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $71.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $66.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $66.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $57.15 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $104.28 | +17.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $99.10 | +11.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $99.62 | +12.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $102.52 | +15.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $97.55 | +9.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $99.40 | +11.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $145.28 | +63.5% | 100% | 67 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 1369.66 | 550.96 | 266.99 | 4109.73 | 1831.91 |
| P/FCF | 69.08 | 68.36 | 29.99 | 118.51 | 33.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 108.35 | 93.12 | 31.54 | 322.81 | 98.17 |
| P/S Ratio | 22.32 | 17.25 | 8.14 | 45.57 | 13.65 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates TEAM's fair value at $145.28 vs the current price of $88.88, implying +63.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $145.28 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $111.55 (P10) to $190.84 (P90), with a median of $150.70.
TEAM's current P/E of -90.7x compares to the industry median of 31.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -387.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
42 analysts cover TEAM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $137.79 (range: $100.00 — $295.00), implying +55.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (30), Hold (12), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TEAM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.