MODEL VERDICT
monday.com Ltd. (MNDY) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $72.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $75.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $72.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $74.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $148.03 | Below threshold | -47.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $83.39 | +14.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $27.17 | -62.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $58.16 | -19.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $115.38 | +58.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $132.11 | +81.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $103.12 | +42.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $77.86 | +7.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $61.53 | -15.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $116.20 | +60.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $691.22 | +851.6% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 29× | 32× (Current) | 35× | 38× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $61 | $68 | $75 | $82 | $89 |
| Conservative (7%) | $62 | $69 | $76 | $83 | $91 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $64 | $71 | $79 | $86 | $94 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $66 | $74 | $81 | $89 | $97 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 839.92 | 277.60 | 111.98 | 2130.20 | 1120.47 |
| P/FCF | 1217.67 | 44.32 | 25.00 | 5290.53 | 2294.13 |
| P/FFO | 524.70 | 243.85 | 59.10 | 1271.16 | 653.02 |
| P/TBV | 11.46 | 11.17 | 6.28 | 19.53 | 5.07 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.44 | 11.17 | 6.28 | 19.53 | 5.07 |
| P/S Ratio | 17.37 | 12.45 | 6.36 | 44.59 | 15.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates MNDY's fair value at $691.22 vs the current price of $72.64, implying +851.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $691.22 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $80.15 (P10) to $2577.18 (P90), with a median of $802.24.
MNDY's current P/E of 32.4x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (71 peers in the group). This represents a +24.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Premium.
25 analysts cover MNDY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $142.69 (range: $80.00 — $310.00), implying +96.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MNDY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.