MODEL VERDICT
Teleflex Incorporated (TFX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $121.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $136.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $131.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $126.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $118.39 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $103.34 | -15.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $170.00 | +39.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $50.12 | -58.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $34.93 | -71.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $59.23 | -51.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $143.39 | +17.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $132.14 | +8.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $50.23 | -58.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $122.04 | +0.2% | 100% | 72 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 52.41 | 35.76 | 32.11 | 120.26 | 34.67 |
| EV/EBIT | 39.94 | 37.00 | 26.00 | 61.92 | 15.26 |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.25 | 23.14 | 18.04 | 89.93 | 25.70 |
| P/FCF | 40.25 | 44.91 | 16.46 | 56.45 | 16.26 |
| P/FFO | 24.39 | 22.95 | 19.71 | 34.59 | 5.62 |
| P/AFFO | 30.13 | 27.44 | 22.95 | 41.24 | 8.14 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.60 | 2.94 | 1.75 | 5.95 | 1.74 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.82 | 4.23 | 2.74 | 7.67 | 1.93 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates TFX's fair value at $122.04 vs the current price of $121.77, implying +0.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $122.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $91.39 (P10) to $166.69 (P90), with a median of $126.71.
TFX's current P/E of -6.0x compares to the industry median of 26.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -122.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 52.4x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
29 analysts cover TFX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $132.20 (range: $116.00 — $147.00), implying +8.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (14), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TFX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.