MODEL VERDICT
Thor Industries, Inc. (THO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $78.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $79.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $80.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $76.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $79.23 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $63.75 | -18.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $137.91 | +76.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $94.15 | +20.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $101.87 | +30.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $103.98 | +33.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $131.05 | +67.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $31.15 | -60.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $170.49 | +118.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $133.71 | +71.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $92.07 | +17.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $97.80 | +25.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $104.01 | +33.0% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $59 | $69 | $79 | $89 | $99 |
| Conservative (5%) | $61 | $71 | $81 | $91 | $102 |
| Base Case (3.7%) | $60 | $70 | $80 | $90 | $100 |
| Bull Case (5%) | $61 | $71 | $81 | $91 | $102 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.60 | 19.37 | 3.67 | 30.08 | 8.89 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.04 | 13.19 | 3.66 | 21.55 | 6.05 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.76 | 8.27 | 3.12 | 16.61 | 4.20 |
| P/FCF | 10.79 | 11.86 | 5.58 | 14.53 | 3.00 |
| P/FFO | 9.36 | 9.78 | 2.93 | 14.23 | 3.72 |
| P/TBV | 6.29 | 5.37 | 3.24 | 12.91 | 3.91 |
| P/AFFO | 13.52 | 13.48 | 3.54 | 26.44 | 7.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.62 | 1.60 | 1.16 | 2.17 | 0.40 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.50 | 0.51 | 0.26 | 0.63 | 0.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates THO's fair value at $104.01 vs the current price of $78.18, implying +33.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $104.01 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $88.55 (P10) to $114.94 (P90), with a median of $101.55.
THO's current P/E of 16.2x compares to the industry median of 19.5x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -17.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.6x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
41 analysts cover THO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $114.25 (range: $97.00 — $133.00), implying +46.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (26), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that THO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9700.0% to approximately $154. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.