MODEL VERDICT
Tripadvisor, Inc. (TRIP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $11.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $11.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $11.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $11.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $10.92 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $19.78 | +71.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $15.22 | +31.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $7.71 | -33.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $17.39 | +50.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $7.94 | -31.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $15.67 | +35.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $29.13 | +152.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $29.90 | +158.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $7.68 | -33.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $17.31 | +49.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.68 | +70.3% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 31× | 34× | 37× (Current) | 40× | 43× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Conservative (7%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 187.51 | 128.43 | 33.76 | 428.12 | 171.38 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.43 | 17.15 | 14.89 | 22.77 | 3.15 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.55 | 12.76 | 11.19 | 13.36 | 0.87 |
| P/FCF | 24.86 | 14.99 | 7.61 | 69.28 | 23.17 |
| P/FFO | 21.71 | 22.39 | 14.45 | 30.94 | 6.43 |
| P/AFFO | 65.70 | 42.94 | 25.29 | 133.85 | 44.90 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.50 | 3.45 | 2.27 | 4.74 | 0.85 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.70 | 1.76 | 1.01 | 6.43 | 1.96 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates TRIP's fair value at $19.68 vs the current price of $11.56, implying +70.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.72 (P10) to $26.28 (P90), with a median of $20.60.
TRIP's current P/E of 37.3x compares to the industry median of 24.9x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +50.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 187.5x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
56 analysts cover TRIP with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $13.56 (range: $10.00 — $20.00), implying +17.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (35), Sell (9), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TRIP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.