MODEL VERDICT
Telesat Corporation (TSAT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $48.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $47.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $51.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $46.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $43.15 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $19.96 | -58.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $76.83 | +58.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.93 | -46.6% | 100% | 60 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.39 | 3.92 | 1.01 | 20.72 | 9.10 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.45 | 6.65 | 1.82 | 60.50 | 22.31 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.20 | 4.35 | 2.25 | 28.54 | 9.84 |
| P/FCF | 1.27 | 1.32 | 0.56 | 2.28 | 0.67 |
| P/FFO | 1.48 | 0.84 | 0.45 | 4.50 | 1.56 |
| P/AFFO | 1.00 | 0.80 | 0.51 | 1.85 | 0.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.24 | 0.20 | 0.05 | 0.81 | 0.26 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.49 | 0.40 | 0.12 | 1.02 | 0.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 4 valuation metrics, the model estimates TSAT's fair value at $25.93 vs the current price of $48.58, implying -46.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 60/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.01 (P10) to $80.92 (P90), with a median of $22.61.
TSAT's current P/E of -6.2x compares to the industry median of 34.8x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -117.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 7.4x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
1 analysts cover TSAT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $20.00 (range: $20.00 — $20.00), implying -58.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 60/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TSAT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.