Upside case
Bull case
$24302+6061.6%
TSM would need investors to value it at roughly 49x earnings — about 48x more generous than today's 1x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
25
analysts
18 bullish · 0 bearish · 25 covering TSM
Strong Buy
0
Buy
18
Hold
7
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$428
+8.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$8195 – $24302
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
0.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $2.05T
TSM price targets
Three scenarios for where TSM stock could go
Current
~$394
Confidence
58 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $394
Bear
$8195
Base
$18041
Bull
$24302
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$18041+4474.1%
At 36x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$8195+1977.8%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push TSM down roughly 1978% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
TSM · NYSETechnologySemiconductorsDecember year-end
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company is the world's largest dedicated semiconductor foundry, manufacturing advanced chips for technology companies that design but don't produce their own silicon. It generates revenue primarily from wafer fabrication services — with high-performance computing and smartphone chips driving over 80% of sales — supplemented by packaging, testing, and mask-making services. Its competitive moat stems from unmatched manufacturing scale, technological leadership in advanced process nodes, and deep customer relationships that create switching costs for chip designers.
Market Cap
$2.05T
Revenue TTM
$3.82T
Net Income TTM
$1.72T
Net Margin
45.1%
TSM Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q4 2025
EPS
$2.85/$2.63
Revenue
$32.4B/$32.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$3.09/$2.90
Revenue
$33.1B/$33.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.49/$3.31
Revenue
$36.0B/$35.4B
Q2 2026
EPS
$3.49/$3.31
Revenue
$36.0B/$35.4B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $2.85/$2.63 | +8.4% | $32.4B/$32.1B | +0.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.09/$2.90 | +6.6% | $33.1B/$33.0B | +0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.49/$3.31 | +5.4% | $36.0B/$35.4B | +1.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.49/$3.31 | +5.4% | $36.0B/$35.4B | +1.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.65T
+21.7% YoY
FY2
$5.43T
+16.9% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$417.36
+25.6% YoY
FY2
$484.47
+16.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.02T
FCF Margin: 26.7%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
TSM beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
TSM Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $379.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Other Products
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
68.8%
+41.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Other Products is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2024 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 68.8%, up 41.4% YoY.
TSM Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $13778 — implies +3364.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
3364.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TSM
37.1x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+48% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
TSM
37.1x
vs
Technology
26.7x
+39% premium
vs TSM 5Y Avg P/E
Today
37.1x
vs
5Y Average
0.8x
+4699% premium
Forward PE
0.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-96%
Technology
22.1x
-96%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
37.1x
S&P 500
25.1x
+48%
Technology
26.7x
+39%
5Y Avg
0.8x
+4699%
PEG Ratio
1.34x
S&P 500
1.72x
-22%
Technology
1.52x
-12%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
23.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+55%
Technology
17.5x
+35%
5Y Avg
0.2x
+15042%
Price/FCF
58.7x
S&P 500
21.1x
+178%
Technology
19.5x
+201%
5Y Avg
1.5x
+3757%
Price/Sales
16.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
+436%
Technology
2.4x
+585%
5Y Avg
0.3x
+5210%
Dividend Yield
0.73%
S&P 500
1.87%
-61%
Technology
1.16%
-37%
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | TSM | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg TSM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 0.8x | 19.1x-96% | 22.1x-96% | — |
| Trailing PE | 37.1x | 25.1x+48% | 26.7x+39% | 0.8x+4699% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.34x | 1.72x-22% | 1.52x-12% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.6x | 15.2x+55% | 17.5x+35% | 0.2x+15042% |
| Price/FCF | 58.7x | 21.1x+178% | 19.5x+201% | 1.5x+3757% |
| Price/Sales | 16.7x | 3.1x+436% | 2.4x+585% | 0.3x+5210% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.73% | 1.87% | 1.16% | — |
TSM trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTSM Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
TSM generates $1.02T in free cash flow at a 26.7% margin — 42.7% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.82T
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+31.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
59.9%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
50.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
45.1%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$332.16
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.02T
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
26.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
42.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
21.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.76T
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.77T
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
31.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.7%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$90.94
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
27.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
5.2B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTSM Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
China-Taiwan Conflict Risk
The most significant risk is the ongoing geopolitical tension between China and Taiwan. China's stated goal of reunification, potentially including the use of force, poses a substantial threat to TSMC's operations, which are heavily concentrated in Taiwan. A conflict or blockade could severely disrupt production, impacting global supply chains and TSMC's reliability as a partner.
High Risk
Premium Valuation Risk
TSMC trades at a premium valuation that some analysts argue is difficult to justify given its emerging market and geopolitical risks. Buying at elevated valuations increases the risk of short‑term losses if demand softens or geopolitical tensions intensify.
High Risk
Advanced Production Concentration
TSMC dominates the production of the world's most advanced semiconductors, with over 90% of leading‑edge chip production. This concentration, while a strength, also represents a significant supply chain risk; a disruption to TSMC's operations would have widespread global economic consequences.
Medium
De‑Globalization & Trade Policies
Rising national security concerns have led to export restrictions, tariffs, and protectionist policies globally. This fragmentation of the high‑tech industry can increase production costs, create supply chain inefficiencies, and limit market access for TSMC.
Medium
Semiconductor Cyclicality
The semiconductor industry is inherently cyclical, with demand and pricing subject to fluctuations. While long‑term demand is strong, driven by AI and other megatrends, short‑term downturns can impact revenue and profitability.
Medium
Cybersecurity Threats
Advancements in AI, quantum computing, and cloud technologies, coupled with geopolitical tensions, have amplified cybersecurity risks. Cyber incidents could disrupt supply chains and operations.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TSM Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Market Dominance in Advanced Chips
TSMC is the world’s largest dedicated chip foundry, projected to hold about 70% of the overall market share in 2025. It also controls nearly 90% of the sub‑5nm advanced chip market, making it indispensable for major tech firms such as Nvidia, Apple, AMD, and Qualcomm.
AI‑Driven Revenue Surge
The AI boom is a primary growth catalyst, with TSMC forecasting a compound annual growth rate of 55‑59% in AI revenue from 2024 to 2029. Demand for high‑end chips and servers used in AI applications is already driving significant sales and revenue expansion.
Robust Financial Growth
In 2025, revenue rose 31.61% year‑over‑year while earnings increased 46.42%. Analysts project EPS growth of 33% in 2026 and an overall revenue CAGR of roughly 25% over the next five years.
Technological Leadership & Premium Pricing
TSMC’s investment in cutting‑edge process nodes, such as 2nm, allows it to charge premium prices and maintain higher gross margins than competitors. Its high‑performance computing segment now represents a substantial portion of revenue, reflecting strong demand from hyperscalers.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TSM Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$394.41
52W Range Position
92%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$170.59
+131.2% from the low
52-Week High
$414.50
-4.8% from the high
1 Month
+15.41%
3 Month
+19.25%
YTD
+23.4%
1 Year
+123.6%
3Y CAGR
+66.8%
5Y CAGR
+27.9%
10Y CAGR
+32.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TSM vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
0.8x
vs 40.2x median
-98% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+21.7%
vs +3.9% median
+462% above peer median
Net Margin
45.1%
vs 20.8% median
+117% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TSM TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | $2.05T | 0.8x | +21.7% | 45.1% | Buy | +8.4% |
INT INTC Intel Corporation | $543.2B | 103.7x | +3.9% | -5.9% | Hold | -28.7% |
GFS GFS GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | $41.2B | 40.2x | +2.9% | 13.0% | Buy | -30.9% |
UMC UMC United Microelectronics Corporation | $34.9B | 20.5x | -13.8% | 20.8% | Hold | -38.6% |
AMA AMAT Applied Materials, Inc. | $325.8B | 37.1x | +8.9% | 24.7% | Buy | +3.8% |
LRC LRCX Lam Research Corporation | $344.4B | 48.8x | +9.6% | 30.9% | Buy | +5.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TSM Dividend and Capital Return
TSM returns 0.7% total yield, led by a 0.73% dividend, raised 5 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.73%
Payout Ratio
27.2%
How TSM Splits Its Return
Div 0.73%
Dividend 0.73%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$90.94
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
5Y
3Y Div CAGR
24.4%
5Y Div CAGR
15.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
5.2B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.91 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.77 | +50.7% | 0.0% | 29.9% |
| 2024 | $1.84 | +26.5% | 0.3% | 35.8% |
| 2023 | $1.45 | +1.0% | 0.0% | 54.1% |
| 2022 | $1.44 | -2.9% | 0.2% | 74.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsTSM Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $428, implying +8.4% from the current price of $394. The bear case scenario is $8195 and the bull case is $24302.
02What is the TSM stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TSM is $428 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $480 (+21.7% from today), and the low-end target is $330 (-16.3%). The base case model target is $18041.
03Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) stock overvalued in 2026?
TSM trades at 0.8x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TSM in 2026 are: (1) China-Taiwan Conflict Risk — The most significant risk is the ongoing geopolitical tension between China and Taiwan. (2) Premium Valuation Risk — TSMC trades at a premium valuation that some analysts argue is difficult to justify given its emerging market and geopolitical risks. (3) Advanced Production Concentration — TSMC dominates the production of the world's most advanced semiconductors, with over 90% of leading‑edge chip production. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TSM will report consensus revenue of $4.65T (+21.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $417.36 (+25.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.43T in revenue.
06When does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for TSM is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited generate?
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) generated $1.02T in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 26.7%. TSM returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.7% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).