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TSMTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
$426.35$2.21T
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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Research Brief

Wall Street consensus, price target range, and equity research thesis

Buy25 Analyst Coverage
Consensus Target
$589+38.1% Upside
Current: $426.35
Analyst Range
Low $500High $700
12-Month High/Low Spread
Ratings Mix
18 Buy·7 Hold·0 Sell
Earnings & Valuation
EPS Beat 11.4%
Forward P/E: 0.8x

Executive Summary & Research Take

Wall Street currently rates TSM buy with a 12-month price target of $589 (+38.1% upside). The sections below cover the bull case, key risks, and latest earnings context for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited.

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Analyst Research Summary

Investment Thesis: Bull Case & Risk Factors

A structured look at the bull case, the risks, and the most recent earnings execution for TSM.

Current setup

TSM beat estimates last quarter. Below are the key reasons analysts remain constructive and the risks that could change that view.

Bull Case

What keeps the long thesis intact

  • Strong AI Chip DemandTSMC is a critical manufacturer for AI chip designers like Nvidia and AMD, with demand expected to fuel significant revenue growth.
  • Impressive Q1 2026 ResultsTSMC reported over 35% year-over-year revenue growth and a gross margin of 66.2%, prompting an upward revision of full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to above 30%.
  • High Growth in AI RevenueManagement projects AI accelerator revenue to grow at a mid- to high-50s CAGR through 2029.
  • Global Expansion PlansTSMC's expansion across Taiwan, the U.S., Japan, and Germany aims to support AI capacity and mitigate geopolitical risks.
  • Attractive Valuation Compared to PeersTSMC trades at a lower valuation than AI peers like Nvidia and AMD, with price targets suggesting significant upside, including one at $477.06 (21.59% upside).

Wall Street rates TSM buy, giving the bull case institutional backing from 25 analysts.

Watch Out For

What can break the setup quickly

  • Geopolitical RisksTensions surrounding Taiwan could lead to supply chain disruptions or operational impacts for TSMC.
  • Overseas Fab CostsBuilding fabs overseas, especially in Arizona, may dilute margins and increase costs due to chemical and gas pricing pressures.
  • Potential Margin CompressionDespite strong Q1 margins, there are concerns about future margin compression.
  • High Stock VolatilityTSMC's beta of 1.251 indicates it is more volatile than the market, making it susceptible to tech downturns.
  • Possible OvervaluationSome analysts suggest TSMC's strengths are already reflected in its share price, with a DCF analysis indicating a fair value around $209.96.
  • AI Capex Cycle RisksThere is a risk that the AI capex cycle may not sustain its momentum, affecting demand from hyperscalers.

Watch whether new negative commentary on TSM points to these structural risks or is simply reacting to short-term price moves.

TSM Earnings Reaction — What the Last Quarter Showed

Last Quarter

EPS
$4.31 vs $3.87 est.Beat 11.4%
Revenue
$39.4B vs $39.8B est.Miss 1.2%
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TSM — Frequently Asked Questions

Quick answers to the most common questions about buying TSM stock.

What is the analyst consensus on TSM?
Verdict

TSM looks attractive at current levels — Wall Street's consensus rating is "Buy" with a $589 price target (+38.1% upside from $426.35). This is informational only — verify the data and consider your own risk tolerance before deciding.

What are recent analyst rating changes for TSM?
Timing

Timing depends on your horizon, but the data signals are: consensus rating "Buy" with +38.1% upside to the $589 target.

What is the price target for TSM stock?
Price Target

TSM's consensus 12-month price target is $589, set by 25 Wall Street analysts. The bull case high is $700 and the bear case low is $500. From the current price of $426.35, this implies +38.1% upside.

Is TSM overvalued or undervalued?
Valuation

TSM appears undervalued — the $589 consensus target is +38.1% above today's $426.35. It trades at a forward P/E of 0.8x. Targets range from $500 (bear) to $700 (bull), reflecting different assumptions about growth and margins.

What were TSM's latest earnings results?
Earnings

TSM reports next quarter. Earnings-week moves are volatile — historically, analyst targets revise upward after a beat and downward after a miss. The current consensus is "Buy" with a $589 target. Consider position sizing rather than going all-in pre-print.

What is the bull case for TSM?
Coverage

Of 25 analysts covering Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM): 0 Strong Buy, 18 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell — a "Buy" consensus. The 12-month price target is $589 (range $500–$700). Bullish analysts outnumber bearish by more than 2-to-1.

What are the risks of investing in TSM?
Risks

No analyst currently rates TSM a Sell, but the 7 Hold ratings reflect concerns about valuation, execution risk, or near-term catalysts. See the Bull vs. Risk cards above for the specific theses on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited.

Financial Data & Software Notice: VCP Scanner is an educational financial research database and stock screening software platform. VCP Scanner does not generate, recommend, or package trade decisions, buy/sell signals, or personalized investment advice. Consensus ratings and price targets reflect aggregated third-party Wall Street analyst research from public SEC filings. See our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.