MODEL VERDICT
U.S. Bancorp (USB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $54.85 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $54.83 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $53.12 | CURRENT | — |
| May 8, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $55.53 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $56.30 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $66.57 | +21.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 13 industry peers | $54.18 | -1.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 13 bank peers | $54.84 | -0.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $66.57 | +21.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $59.06 | +7.7% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $62.18 | +13.4% | 100% | 94 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $38 | $48 | $57 | $67 | $76 |
| Conservative (6%) | $39 | $49 | $58 | $68 | $78 |
| Base Case (8.5%) | $40 | $50 | $60 | $70 | $80 |
| Bull Case (12%) | $41 | $51 | $62 | $72 | $82 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 12.82 | 12.62 | 11.01 | 15.23 | 1.52 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.56 | 11.30 | 9.71 | 15.75 | 2.02 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.64 | 10.36 | 9.18 | 14.88 | 2.01 |
| P/FCF | 10.70 | 8.19 | 3.08 | 19.20 | 6.74 |
| P/FFO | 10.88 | 10.32 | 9.89 | 12.82 | 1.28 |
| P/TBV | 1.93 | 1.82 | 1.72 | 2.37 | 0.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.37 | 1.27 | 1.20 | 1.79 | 0.21 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.49 | 2.37 | 1.64 | 3.53 | 0.78 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates USB's fair value at $62.18 vs the current price of $54.85, implying +13.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $62.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $56.76 (P10) to $62.80 (P90), with a median of $59.75.
USB's current P/E of 11.9x compares to the industry median of 14.4x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -17.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 12.8x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
49 analysts cover USB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $63.82 (range: $60.00 — $73.00), implying +16.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (22), Hold (23), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that USB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1980.0% to approximately $66. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.